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Sisule Musungu

Coordinator - Innovation, Access to Knowledge and Intellectual Property Programme, Geneva

The scenarios on the future of patents, being the first of its kind, is a critical and timely undertaking that will no doubt make a unique and lasting contribution to the on-going debates on the role of patents and intellectual property (IP) in the knowledge society and the knowledge economy. By pushing all the key stakeholders, and particularly the rather insulated patent community, to contemplate the seemingly unthinkable, the scenarios should help the global community to prod more deeply the questions and issues that face us today. While the key issues and questions as well as the debate has been with us for sometime now, re-examining the issues through the lenses of the scenarios should provide everyone with much food for thought and hopefully spur a more meaningful debate regarding the future.

A key aspect of the debate on the future of patents that the scenarios are relevant to is the debate and discussions at the international, regional, national and local levels on patents and development (developing country interests and needs). It is from this perspective that I comment on the scenarios. There are a number of aspects/lessons/ideas that are relevant across the four scenarios. I highlight only a few of these in each scenario.

In the Market Rules (Grey) scenario some of the key aspects that should engage development/public interest community include:

• the striking lack of leverage or major role for multilateral institutions such as WIPO and WTO in this scenario. What will be the relevance of these institutions both as players and as centres for the articulation of development issues related to patents?
• the implications for development concerns in a situation where new countries (drawn from the Group of 77) emerge as global players in the knowledge economy and seek to control the system for competitive purposes. For how long will the North-South dichotomy as it exists today be relevant in shaping the future of patents and for addressing the development and public interest concerns?
  

In the Whose Game? (Red) scenario one of the most relevant aspects from a development perspective that I would highlight is that:

• while this scenario may suggest cause for celebration in the South, and that it means danger (red) for the North, it might actually be a scenario that suggests more challenges (red) for the majority in the South. Would the emerging countries seek to capitalise on the North-South divide simply to seek space to catch-up before they also “kick away the ladder” for those below?

The Trees of Knowledge (Green) Scenario, in my view, is the most challenging scenario. It puts before us the question -what about if the world of patents was turned on its head? Whether you are North or South, business or non-profit, national or international it just might be that we all do not know how we would leverage the opportunities and address the risks in that world. Some of the aspects that could be of relevance to the IP, development and public interest community are:

• the power that comes with leveraging new technological tools to create global communities that are representative but transcend the usual North versus South, business versus civil society, government versus non-government, local and national versus international dichotomies. The IP, development and public interest community has already demonstrated the potent power through initiatives such as access to medicines campaign, the A2K movement and others;
• if such a different world, where patents have survived only in some traditional fields, were to come about -are the traditional development and public interest groups ready with ideas to proactively shape that world?

The Blue Skies (Blue) scenario also raises important issues in the context of the IP and development debate. One key aspect for me relates to:

• the coverage of the development/public interest and IP debate. While key sectors such as health and education have attracted significant attention, this scenario suggests that it could be time to think more seriously about this community going beyond the traditional areas and to address issues, for example, around patents and environmental technologies, energy, food security and others?

In conclusion, the scenarios provide a much needed catalyst for a more informed debate in this area. My hope is that the scenarios will not be seen as suggesting a particular trajectory (based on what people feel is most plausible to them) but as tools for all of us and the larger community to use to more deeply interrogate the issues we face and the solutions we propose.

My most sincere thanks to the scenario team for the excellent work and, of course, the EPO for taking on this project.